Polymarket: "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office Odds Drop Significantly
Odds for "Michael" 2nd weekend box office to exceed $38M declined by 25.2% over the past hour. The market is currently trading at 2.05%.
Published Tue, 12 May 2026 05:05:43 GMT
Probability for the market "Will \"Michael\" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?" has experienced a significant shift. The 'Yes' outcome, indicating the box office will surpass $38 million, saw its probability decrease by 25.2% within the last hour. The probability, or market's implied likelihood, now stands at 0.0205 (2.05%), down from its previous level in the specified timeframe.
Over a longer duration, the market reflects a sustained downward trend. The probability for "Yes" has fallen by 29.5% over the past 24 hours and by 46.8% over the last 7 days. Trading volume in the last 24 hours reached $296.21 across 8 trades. No whale trades (large volume transactions typically indicating high-conviction positions) were recorded within the past 24 hours. The market is scheduled to resolve by May 11, 2026, at 12:00 PM UTC.
Looking forward, market participants will be observing any developments related to the film's performance, critical reception, and audience turnout for its initial release. These factors typically influence expectations for subsequent weekend box office numbers. Any data releases or industry reports regarding competitive film releases or overall cinema attendance trends could also introduce volatility.
Prediction markets like Polymarket allow users to trade on the outcome of future events. The prices in these markets can be interpreted as probabilities, ranging from 0% to 100%. A higher probability indicates a greater perceived likelihood of an event occurring, based on the collective knowledge and investment of market participants. It is important to note that these probabilities reflect current market sentiment and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Traders buy 'Yes' or 'No' shares, and the final price of these shares depends on the market's resolution. When the market resolves, 'Yes' shares pay $1 if the event occurs and $0 if it does not. Conversely, 'No' shares pay $1 if the event does not occur and $0 if it does.
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Track this market live on Polydar →Frequently asked
- What is the current probability for the market?
- The current probability for "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office to be greater than $38M is 2.05%.
- How much has the probability changed recently?
- The probability has decreased by 25.2% in the last hour, 29.5% in the last 24 hours, and 46.8% in the last 7 days.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market is set to resolve on May 11, 2026, at 12:00 PM UTC.
- What does this probability mean?
- In prediction markets, the probability represents the collective belief of market participants regarding the likelihood of an event occurring, based on available information.