EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro O/U 2.5 Market Experiences Significant Probability Shift

The Polymarket for EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro O/U 2.5 goals shows a major probability increase over the last hour, now standing at 99.95%.

Published Mon, 11 May 2026 04:05:28 GMT

Current probability
100.0%
Change 24h
+46.5 pts
Change 7d
+46.5 pts
Volume 24h
$0
Trades 24h
0
Resolves
2026-05-10
EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro O/U 2.5 Market Experiences Significant Probability ShiftSports · Odds Shock25%50%75%Trigger2026-05-102026-05-10

The Polymarket titled "EC Bahia vs. Cruzeiro EC: O/U 2.5" has experienced a notable shift in probability. The likelihood for the 'Over 2.5 goals' outcome currently stands at 99.95%. This represents a +51.45 percentage point increase in the last hour, according to the `deltaPct` value. Over a 24-hour period, the probability has similarly increased by +46.45 percentage points, indicating a sustained upward trend.

Market activity over the past 24 hours shows 0 volume and 0 trades, suggesting that the probability change was not driven by recent trading volume within this specific timeframe. However, the `changePct24h` and `changePct7d` metrics both show a +46.45% change, implying this shift occurred prior to the last 24-hour window, or was a rapid adjustment to a prior state.

Key Data Points: * Current Probability: 99.95% * Probability Change (1 hour): +51.45 percentage points * Probability Change (24 hours): +46.45 percentage points * Volume (24 hours): 0 * Trades (24 hours): 0

The market is set to resolve on "2026-05-10T00:00:00+00:00".

What to Watch Next: Market participants will observe whether the probability sustains its current level or experiences further adjustments as the event date approaches. Any future trading activity could introduce new volatility or reinforce the current high probability.

Understanding Prediction Markets on Polydar: Polydar provides data from Polymarket, which are prediction markets where users wager on the outcomes of future events. The 'price' of an outcome on Polymarket indicates the crowd's perceived probability of that event occurring. For example, if a market trades at $0.75, it suggests a 75% perceived probability. These markets offer real-time insights based on aggregated participant sentiment. Probabilities can fluctuate significantly as new information becomes available or as market dynamics change. A probability of 99.95% indicates a very high degree of expectation among participants that the market's 'Over 2.5 goals' outcome will occur.

Frequently asked

What does a high probability on Polymarket signify?
A high probability, such as 99.95% for 'Over 2.5 goals', indicates that market participants collectively believe there is a very strong likelihood of that specific outcome occurring.
How quickly can probabilities change in these markets?
Probabilities in prediction markets can change rapidly due to new information, shifts in participant sentiment, or, as seen here, potentially significant market activity affecting prices. This particular market showed a +51.45 percentage point change in just one hour.
How does Polymarket determine these probabilities?
Polymarket probabilities are derived from the aggregate betting behavior of its users. The price of an outcome's share, ranging from $0.01 to $0.99, directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome.

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