FlyQuest Probability Surges 39% on Polymarket Ahead of LCS Match vs. LYON

Data Observations

The probability associated with FlyQuest winning their League of Legends LCS Regular Season match against LYON has seen a significant increase of 39 percentage points over the past hour. The market's assessment of FlyQuest's likelihood to win has moved from an implied probability of 39.5% (100% - 78.5% - 39%) to the current 78.5%. This shift indicates a substantial change in market sentiment regarding the expected outcome of the Best-of-Three (BO3) series.

Market Dynamics

Over the last 24 hours, the market recorded zero volume and zero trades. No whale activity was reported within the same period. The market is set to resolve on May 18, 2026, at 03:40 UTC. The trigger event for this analysis occurred at 1779062403250.

Interpretation and Context

Prediction markets, such as Polymarket, aggregate user beliefs into probabilities. A probability of 78.5% suggests that the market, as a collective, currently assigns a high likelihood to FlyQuest winning the match. This probability is derived from the trading activity on the platform, where users buy and sell shares representing potential outcomes. A higher probability indicates more shares being traded at a price point reflecting that outcome's perceived likelihood.

What to Watch Next

Market participants will monitor any further shifts in probability leading up to and potentially during the match, should the market remain open. The absence of recent trading volume in the 24-hour window preceding this shock suggests that the recent price movement may be attributed to a concentrated influx of activity or a re-evaluation based on external information not directly reflected in on-chain volume data.

FAQs

Q: What is the current probability of FlyQuest winning?

A: The current probability of FlyQuest winning is 78.5% as of the latest data point.

Q: What does the 39% delta signify?

A: The 39% delta indicates a 39 percentage point increase in the probability of FlyQuest winning over the last hour.

Q: How are probabilities determined on Polymarket?

A: Probabilities on Polymarket are determined by the price of shares in a market. If a share costs $0.785, the market assigns a 78.5% probability to that outcome.