Nottingham Forest FC Win Odds Fall Sharply on Polymarket

Data Shift Analysis

The market assessing the probability of Nottingham Forest FC winning on May 17, 2026, experienced a notable shift in the past hour. The probability, as indicated by the `deltaPct` metric, fell by 14.45%. This movement brings the current implied probability for Nottingham Forest FC to win down to 0.0005 (0.05%).

Volume data for the past 24 hours shows zero trades, zero volume, and zero whale activity (`volume24h`, `trades24h`, `whales24h` are all 0). This suggests the recent price movement occurred on minimal trading activity within that specific window. The market is set to resolve on May 17, 2026, at 11:30:00 UTC.

What to Watch

Given the recent sharp decline in probability on low volume, market participants will monitor for any significant new information or trade flow that might indicate the cause of this price adjustment. The lack of preceding volume suggests this shift might be driven by a small number of trades or a re-evaluation of existing positions. Future price action will be key to understanding the market's consensus on Nottingham Forest's chances for the specified match.

Prediction Market Context

Prediction markets, such as Polymarket, allow users to bet on the outcome of future events. Probabilities are derived from the market price of shares representing a specific outcome. A share price of $0.50, for example, implies a 50% chance of that outcome occurring. Conversely, a price of $0.01 implies a 1% chance. The probability is calculated as `(Share Price / Total Supply) * 100%`. In this case, the data indicates the probability has decreased, meaning the implied value or price of shares for Nottingham Forest winning has fallen.

Frequently Asked Questions

* What does a 0.05% probability mean for Nottingham Forest? A 0.05% probability implies the market currently assigns a very low chance of Nottingham Forest FC winning their match on May 17, 2026.

* What caused the probability to drop by 14.45%? The provided data indicates a 14.45% decrease in probability over the last hour, but does not specify the exact cause. Trading volume in the last 24 hours was zero, suggesting the shift occurred with minimal trading activity.

* How are probabilities determined on Polymarket? Probabilities on Polymarket are determined by the trading prices of shares representing different outcomes. The price of a share reflects the market's collective belief in the likelihood of that outcome occurring.