S&P 500 Odds for Up/Down Shift by 27% on Polymarket

Polymarket data for 'S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 7?' has registered an odds shock event. Over a 6-hour window, the probability for the S&P 500 to close 'Up' on May 7, 2026, decreased by 27.0%.

Following this shift, the current probability for an 'Up' close stands at 0.0085 (0.85%). The 'Down' outcome's probability, conversely, increased, with its implied probability now at 0.915 (91.5%).

Market activity over the past 24 hours includes 85 trades and a trading volume of 6,425.04. The 24-hour change in probability for 'Up' is -45.65%, mirroring the 7-day change at -45.65%. No whale trades were recorded within the 24-hour period.

This market resolves on May 7, 2026, at 20:00 UTC. Participants are predicting whether the S&P 500 (SPX) Index will finish higher or lower at the close of trading on the specified date.

Prediction markets like Polymarket aggregate participants' beliefs into a real-time probability. Each market outcome represents the crowd's current assessment of an event's likelihood. A probability of 0.85 (85%) indicates that market participants collectively believe there is an 85% chance of that outcome occurring.