Economy Prediction Markets

17 insights published in this category.

Odds Shock2026-07-27

Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? Probability Jumps 21%

Market probability for Jerome Powell being removed as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026, surged 20.5%. Current odds stand at 99.95%.

Odds Shock2026-07-26

Jerome Powell Fed Chair Exit Odds Surge to 99.95% on Polymarket as May 2026 Deadline Nears

The probability of Jerome Powell being out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026, has surged 27.45 percentage points to 99.95% on Polymarket.

Odds Shock2026-07-26

Jerome Powell Fed Chair Odds Jump 31% on Polymarket

Probability of Jerome Powell no longer being Fed Chair by May 16, 2026, surged 31.15% on Polymarket due to a data trigger.

Odds Shock2026-07-26

Fed Chair Powell Removal Odds Surge on Polymarket by May 15, 2026

Market probability for Jerome Powell's removal as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026 has seen a significant increase, now trading at 99.95%. Data reflects 6-hour window changes.

Odds Shock2026-07-25

Jerome Powell Fed Chair Odds Skyrocket on Polymarket

Market probability for Jerome Powell's removal as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026, has surged to 99.95%. See the data and what it means.

Odds Shock2026-07-25

Jerome Powell Fed Chair Exit Odds Surge on Polymarket

Market odds for Jerome Powell's departure as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026, increased by 26.55% in the last 6 hours, reaching 99.95% probability.

Odds Shock2026-07-24

Jerome Powell Fed Chair Exit Probability Jumps on Polymarket

Market probability for Jerome Powell exiting his Fed Chair role by May 15, 2026, has increased by 51.5%. Current odds stand at 73.5%.

Odds Shock2026-07-23

Odds of Jerome Powell Out as Fed Chair by May 2026 Surge on Polymarket

Probability for Jerome Powell's removal as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026, has increased by 63 percentage points in the last 6 hours on Polymarket.

Odds Shock2026-07-22

Jerome Powell Fed Chair Exit Probability Surges on Polymarket

Probability of Jerome Powell being out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026, rose 13.2% in the past hour. Current odds sit at 86.6% on Polymarket.

Odds Shock2026-07-22

Jerome Powell Fed Chair Odds Change Significantly on Polymarket

Market odds for Jerome Powell's tenure as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026, saw a notable shift of 21.999999999999996 percentage points in the last hour.

Odds Shock2026-07-21

Fed Chair Powell Removal Odds Change Significantly on Polymarket

Market probability for Jerome Powell's removal as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026, has shifted by -15.00%. Current odds stand at 58.4%.

Odds Shock2026-07-16

WTI Crude Oil $105 May Target Probability Declines 15.5% in 6 Hours

The probability for WTI Crude Oil hitting $105 in May declined by 15.5% over the last 6 hours. Current probability stands at 72.5%.

Odds Shock2026-07-16

WTI Crude Oil $105 Target Probability Drops 61% on Polymarket

WTI Crude Oil target price probability has decreased by 61% in the past 24 hours on Polymarket, reflecting current market sentiment.

Odds Shock2026-07-16

WTI Crude Oil: Probability of hitting $105 by May 2026 drops 61%

Polymarket odds for WTI Crude Oil reaching $105 week of May 11, 2026, have fallen 61%. Current probability stands at 7.5%.

Odds Shock2026-07-10

WTI Crude Oil Price Probability Jumps 39.45% on Polymarket

WTI Crude Oil price probability surged 39.45% in the last hour on Polymarket. Market currently prices a 99.95% chance of 'Up'.

Odds Shock2026-07-08

WTI Crude Oil Price Set to Resolve Next Week

WTI Crude Oil price odds show a 99.7% probability of 'Up' for the May 14 resolution. Volume and trades remain extremely low.

Odds Shock2026-05-08

S&P 500 Odds for Up/Down Shift by 27% on Polymarket

Polymarket data for the 'S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 7?' market indicates a 27% shift in probabilities over 6 hours. Current probabilities show 8.5% for an 'Up' close.