WTI Crude Oil Futures: Probability of hitting $95 in May declines 19.5%
Analysis of WTI Crude Oil futures market. Probability of WTI hitting $95 in May has shifted significantly, indicating market sentiment changes.
Published Thu, 30 Jul 2026 00:05:25 GMT
The probability of WTI Crude Oil hitting a low of $95 in May has decreased by 19.50% over the past 6 hours, according to Polymarket data. The market, which resolves on June 1, 2026, currently stands at a 58.5% probability for the 'Yes' outcome (WTI Crude Oil hitting $95 in May).
This shift in probability suggests a change in market sentiment regarding WTI Crude Oil prices for the specified period. The market does not appear to have significant trading volume or activity in the last 24 hours, with zero reported for volume, trades, and whales. The absence of recent trading data may indicate a period of consolidation or reduced speculative interest.
What to Watch Next:
* Broader Market Trends: Monitor broader economic indicators, geopolitical events, and supply/demand dynamics impacting crude oil prices globally. Significant news releases or policy changes could influence future probability shifts. * Market Liquidity: Observe any changes in trading volume and whale activity, as these can signal increased conviction or a change in direction within the market. * Competing Markets: Keep an eye on related energy commodity markets and the performance of major oil producers, as these can provide further context.
Understanding Prediction Markets:
Polymarket operates as a decentralized prediction market. The probabilities displayed reflect the aggregated belief of market participants about the likelihood of a specific event occurring. A probability of 58.5% means that, based on current trading, the market assesses there is a 58.5% chance that WTI Crude Oil will hit a low of $95 in May. These probabilities are dynamic and can change based on new information, trading activity, and evolving market sentiment. The 'odds shock' trigger specifically flags a notable, recent change in these probabilities, moving from one calculated percentage to another within a defined timeframe (in this case, the last 6 hours).
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Track this market live on Polydar →Frequently asked
- What does WTI Crude Oil represent?
- WTI Crude Oil (West Texas Intermediate) is a benchmark grade of crude oil used primarily in the US. It's a key global oil pricing marker.
- How are probabilities determined in prediction markets like Polymarket?
- Probabilities are determined by the trading of shares within the market. The current price of a share (denominated in USD) directly reflects the market's perceived probability of the event occurring. For example, if a share costs $0.585, the market implies a 58.5% probability for that outcome.
- What does an 'odds shock' trigger mean?
- An 'odds shock' trigger indicates a significant and rapid change in the probability of a market outcome within a short period, prompting further analysis of recent market movements.