WTI Crude Oil $105 Target Probability Drops 61% on Polymarket
WTI Crude Oil target price probability has decreased by 61% in the past 24 hours on Polymarket, reflecting current market sentiment.
Published Thu, 16 Jul 2026 00:05:30 GMT
# Crude Oil Price Target Probability Declines
Market Overview: The probability of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil reaching a price of $105 during the week of May 11, 2026, has seen a significant contraction. Data from Polymarket indicates a delta of -61.00% in the past 24 hours, settling at a current probability of 7.5%. The market event will resolve on May 15, 2026.
Data Analysis: The sharp decline in probability suggests a shift in market expectations regarding WTI's price trajectory towards the target of $105 by mid-May 2026. The `deltaPct` metric highlights the magnitude of this shift over the last 24 hours, moving from a potentially higher implied probability to the current 7.5%. This indicates that, as of the most recent data, traders are assigning a lower likelihood to the $105 price level being breached within the specified timeframe.
What to Watch:
* Price Action: Ongoing WTI crude oil price movements will be the primary determinant of this market's outcome. Analysts will be monitoring geopolitical developments, OPEC+ decisions, global demand figures, and inventory levels. * Market Sentiment: Continued observation of Polymarket trading activity, including volume and any significant whale movements, can provide further insight into prevailing sentiment. * Macroeconomic Data: Key economic indicators from major economies, such as inflation reports, GDP growth rates, and manufacturing indices, could influence oil demand and thus WTI prices.
Understanding Prediction Markets: Markets like Polymarket allow users to trade on the probability of future events. A probability of 7.5% means that traders currently believe there is a 7.5% chance of WTI Crude Oil hitting $105 during the specified week. The price of a share in the market generally reflects this probability. For instance, if a share costs $0.10, it implies a 10% probability. As the event date approaches, or if new information emerges, these probabilities can fluctuate significantly based on evolving market perceptions and trading activity.
Context: The $105 price target is a specific threshold for WTI crude oil. The prediction market aggregates the collective assessment of traders on the likelihood of this threshold being met. The recent 61% decrease in probability suggests a prevailing view that current conditions or anticipated future developments make this price level less attainable than previously thought within the defined timeframe.
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Track this market live on Polydar →Frequently asked
- What is WTI Crude Oil?
- WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, a specific grade of crude oil used as a benchmark in oil pricing.
- What does a 7.5% probability mean in this market?
- A 7.5% probability indicates that, based on current trading, participants believe there is a 7.5% chance that WTI Crude Oil will reach $105 during the week of May 11, 2026.
- How does the deltaPct value of -61% affect the market?
- The deltaPct of -61% signifies a substantial decrease in the probability assessed by the market over the last 24 hours, indicating a notable shift in recent sentiment or expectations.