10 insights published in this category.
Probability of Iran closing its airspace by May 24th has decreased by 16% on Polymarket, currently standing at 25.5%. Data reflects a 6-hour window.
The probability of Iran closing its airspace by May 31 has decreased by 18.00% over the last 6 hours, now standing at 37.5%.
Probability of Iran closing airspace by May 24 has decreased by 12.5 percentage points in the last hour, now standing at 29%. No trading volume recorded.
Odds for a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026 have increased by 11.5% on Polymarket, reaching a current probability of 63%.
The probability of Iran closing its airspace by May 31 has fallen 11.5% to 38% on Polymarket. This move occurred within the last hour.
The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026, has risen by 13 percentage points on Polymarket. Current odds stand at 64.5%.
The probability of Iran closing its airspace by May 31, 2026, has decreased by 11.5% in the past hour, now standing at 38%.
Probability for Israel closing its airspace by May 31 increased by 17% in the last hour, reaching 53.5% on Polymarket.
A significant trade by a large holder occurred in the US-Iran permanent peace deal market. View current probabilities and market dynamics.
Probability for a US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026, fell to 0.05% following a recent whale alert. Volume and trade activity remain minimal.