US x Iran Permanent Peace Deal Probability Dips Following Whale Alert on Polymarket
Probability for a US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026, fell to 0.05% following a recent whale alert. Volume and trade activity remain minimal.
Published Mon, 08 Jun 2026 00:05:14 GMT
A single whale trade was recorded on the US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026, market on Polymarket. At the time of the alert, the market's implied probability for the resolution condition was 0.05%.
Over the past 24 hours, the market saw a 0.2% decrease in probability, and a 14.1% decrease over the past 7 days. Trading volume and the number of trades in the last 24 hours registered at $0.00 and 0 respectively, indicating minimal recent activity.
In prediction markets, probabilities fluctuate based on trading activity. A higher probability suggests traders believe the event is more likely to occur, while a lower probability indicates the opposite. These probabilities are not endorsements or predictions but reflect the current market consensus based on aggregated trades. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if a permanent peace deal is officially established between the US and Iran by May 15, 2026, and 'No' otherwise.
Traders should monitor diplomatic developments between the United States and Iran for potential shifts in market sentiment. Future whale alerts or significant trading volume could indicate a change in market expectations regarding the likelihood of a permanent peace deal.
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- What is the current probability of a US x Iran permanent peace deal?
- The current implied probability is 0.05% as of the latest data.
- What does a 'whale alert' signify in this market?
- A whale alert indicates a large trade executed by a single entity, potentially signaling a significant shift in a trader's outlook on the event's outcome.
- How are probabilities determined on Polymarket?
- Probabilities are determined by the collective trading activity on the platform. The price of a 'Yes' share reflects the market's current belief in the likelihood of the event occurring.
- When does the US x Iran permanent peace deal market resolve?
- This market resolves on May 15, 2026. It will resolve to 'Yes' if a permanent peace deal is officially established between the US and Iran by that date, and 'No' otherwise.