Trump "Tariff" Mention Probability Falls on Polymarket
Probability of Trump saying "Tariff" in events with Xi Jinping fell from 67.5% to 54% in the past hour. Market resolves May 2026.
Published Wed, 01 Jul 2026 02:09:07 GMT
Market Activity
The probability for the market "Will Trump say 'Tariff' during events with Xi Jinping?" experienced a notable shift in the last hour. The current probability stands at 54.0%, representing a decrease of 13.5 percentage points from its previous value. This movement occurred within the last hour according to the provided data.
Moving Forward
Market participants will monitor future interactions between former President Trump and Xi Jinping, particularly during any bilateral events. The market's resolution is contingent on whether the word "Tariff" is spoken by Trump in such a context before May 15, 2026. Future statements or policy discussions related to trade and tariffs involving these figures could influence the market's probability.
Understanding Prediction Markets
Prediction markets, like Polymarket, allow users to trade on the outcome of future events. The probability displayed for a market reflects the collective belief of its traders regarding the likelihood of a specific outcome. A probability of 54.0% suggests that traders currently assess a slightly greater than even chance that Trump will say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping, with the implied odds having recently moved downward.
Want the live numbers?
Track this market live on Polydar →Frequently asked
- What is the current probability of Trump saying "Tariff"?
- The current probability is 54.0%.
- When does this market resolve?
- The market resolves on May 15, 2026.
- What caused the odds shock?
- The provided data indicates a 13.5% decrease in probability over the past hour, but does not specify the cause of the shift.