35 insights published in this category.
Probability that fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-17 increased by 18.95% in the last 6 hours. Current probability is 77.45%.
Market probability for SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18 jumped 24.05% in the last hour, reaching 26.45%. Observe shifts ahead of the May 18th resolution.
The probability for SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18? has shifted by 20.55%. Market probability currently stands at 26.45%.
The probability for SPY (SPY) Up on May 18 has increased by 20.55% in the last hour, now standing at 26.45%. Explore market dynamics.
Odds for Keir Starmer to leave leadership by May 31, 2026, have fallen 14.2% in the last hour. Current probability stands at 10.5%.
The probability of Keir Starmer leaving office by June 30, 2026, has fallen 16% on Polymarket in the last hour to 46.5%.
The probability of Keir Starmer leaving office by May 31, 2026, has increased by 15.35% in the last 6 hours, reaching 30.45% on Polymarket.
Market probability for Keir Starmer leaving leadership by June 30, 2026, increased by 23.5% in the last 6 hours. Current probability stands at 63.5%.
Probability of Keir Starmer being out as UK Labour Leader by Dec 31, 2026, increased 11% to 86.5% in the past hour on Polymarket.
Market probability for Starmer out by May 31, 2026, has increased 15.3% in the last 6 hours to 30.4%. See data-driven insights.
Probability of Keir Starmer leaving his position by June 30, 2026, increased by 22.5% on Polymarket in the last hour, reaching 62.5%.
Probability for Starmer being out by Dec 31, 2026, has risen 11% in the last hour on Polymarket, reaching 86.5%.
Polymarket odds for Keir Starmer leaving office by May 31, 2026, increased by 25.45% in the last hour to 40.55%.
Market odds for Keir Starmer's departure by June 30, 2026, have risen 25% in the last hour. Explore the data and what it means for political market watchers.
Market probability for a confirmed US Hantavirus case by May 15, 2026, increased by 96.75% in the latest 6-hour window.
Polymarket probability for a confirmed Hantavirus case in the US by May 15 has surged by 96.30%, reaching 99.05%. Data shows a significant shift. Learn what this means.
Probability for a confirmed Hantavirus case in the US by May 15 has increased to 93.3%. This represents a 90.55% delta in the last hour.
The probability for SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 14 has seen a significant increase of 25.90% within the last 6 hours, reaching 96.9%.
The probability of a confirmed Hantavirus case in the US by May 15 has decreased by 12.5%, standing at 32% as of the latest data. Watch for public health updates.
Odds for a confirmed Hantavirus case in the US by May 15 have experienced a significant intraday shock, falling 34% from their recent peak.
Odds of a confirmed Hantavirus case in the US by May 15 have decreased significantly. Current probability is 27.5%, down from a higher level within the last 6 hours.
The probability of a confirmed Hantavirus case in the US by May 15 has fallen 43% in the last 6 hours, now standing at 31.5%.
Odds for a confirmed Hantavirus case in the US by May 15 fell 22% in the last hour, now standing at 56.5%. Volume and trading activity remain at zero.
Polymarket data for the 'SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7?' market shows a significant probability change in the last 6 hours.
A Polymarket for the release of a new MAI model by April 30, 2026, has seen a whale trade, contributing to a 24-hour volume of $71,182.84.
Large trade recorded in Polymarket's 'Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?' market, which saw $71,182.84 in 24h volume.
Polymarket's 'Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?' market saw significant trading volume following a whale alert.
This report details significant whale activity in the Polymarket market concerning the release of a new MAI model by April 30, 2026. The market observed increased volume and a notable trade.
Polymarket's 'Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?' market saw a large trade, increasing the 'Yes' probability. Volume reached $71,182.
A significant trade occurred in the 'Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?' market, with a single whale contributing to a substantial 24h volume.
A single whale trade has been observed in the 'Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?' market, which has seen $71,182.84 in 24-hour volume.
A large trade was observed in the Polymarket for 'Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?' contributing to the market's recent volume.
Polymarket's "QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?" market experienced one whale trade amidst 32 total trades in 24 hours. The probability of 'Yes' remains at 99.7%.
Polymarket data indicates a high probability for QatarEnergy to announce or resume LNG production by April 30. A large trade volume was observed in the past 24 hours.
Market for QatarEnergy LNG production by April 30 holds 99.7% probability. A single whale trade occurred recently.